Uncertainty Is Real. Opportunity Is Too.

The headlines say one thing. The data says something more nuanced. Here’s what mid-market CEOs should actually be paying attention to right now. This two-part series from Chief Outsiders Founder & CEO Art Saxby explores what the data actually shows about CEO confidence, why this moment is different from past disruptions, and where mid-market companies are finding real growth opportunities right now.

Uncertainty Is Real. Opportunity Is Too.

Why Mid-Market CEOs Have More Control Than the Headlines Suggest

By Art Saxby, Chief Outsiders Founder & CEO

For many middle-market CEOs, uncertainty is no longer an event. It’s become the operating environment.

Interest rates, tariffs, labor challenges, geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid technological change have created a business environment where even confident leaders are second-guessing decisions they might have made quickly before.

The uncertainty is real. But that doesn’t mean the opportunity has disappeared.

What the Data Shows

The headlines are not lying to you. Among large enterprise CEOs, the Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence fell from 59 in Q1 to 47 in Q2 2026, and 47% said conditions had worsened over the prior six months.

Those numbers reflect genuine caution. But they do not tell the entire story. There are signals that confidence is improving and the market isn’t doom and gloom.

While Chief Executive’s CEO Confidence Index also shows that CEO confidence is low relative to prior years, it is also seeing an improving trend for four consecutive months.

It also shows that 57% of CEOs forecast economic growth by the end of 2026, the highest share since February. Meanwhile, only 15% now expect a recession within the next six months, the lowest level since February.

And the Conference Board survey shows that capital spending plans have not collapsed: 37% of CEOs expected to increase capital spending, while only 8% expected to reduce it.

Source: CEO Confidence Index, Chief Executive Group — chiefexecutive.net

And here’s what’s interesting. Even if CEOs aren’t sure about the market, they are confident in their own companies. JPMorgan’s 2026 Business Leaders Outlook found that 71% of mid-market CEOs are confident in their own company’s performance, even as only 39% are optimistic about the U.S. economy overall. This creates an important paradox: many CEOs believe the economy is uncertain, while simultaneously believing their own companies can grow. Historically, that’s often where competitive opportunities emerge.

That gap matters. Macro uncertainty and company-level opportunity are not the same thing, and conflating them is one of the most expensive mistakes a leader can make right now.

This Environment Is Different Than Previous Disruptions

The uncertainty leaders are navigating today is real. But it is fundamentally different from the disruptions that defined the last two decades, like the 2008 financial crises, the 2020 Covid shutdown, or the 2022 inflation and supply chain shock.

Today’s environment is different because leaders are not managing through a single crisis. Instead, they are navigating a continuous stream of competing pressures: interest rates, tariffs, labor shortages, geopolitical uncertainty, AI disruption, and shifting customer expectations. The challenge isn’t surviving one major event—it’s making good decisions amid persistent ambiguity.

And, yet, ITR Economics’ 2026 outlook points to growth returning across GDP, industrial production, and business investment, alongside many specific sectors that are actually strong or accelerating right now.

At Chief Outsiders, we’re seeing many middle-market companies move beyond founder-led growth models and invest in the commercial capabilities needed for their next stage of growth. That includes clarifying target markets, improving go-to-market execution, strengthening sales productivity, and leveraging AI to improve commercial performance.

These companies aren’t waiting for uncertainty to disappear. They’re building the capabilities they believe will define their competitive advantage over the next decade.

For example:

While some sectors remain under pressure, others continue to invest aggressively. Industrial automation, medical technology, electrical equipment, infrastructure-related markets, and AI-enabled business services are all seeing continued investment and growth activity despite broader economic uncertainty.

The Leaders Who Win Don’t Wait for Certainty

There will never be a perfect time to invest in key strategic initiatives. The leaders who pull ahead—even in uncertain markets—are not the ones who bunker down and wait for every signal to turn green. They are the ones who decided to move anyway: with discipline, with focus, and before their competitors do.

Among the CEOs who are optimistic about the year ahead, several cited new products, onshoring, steady backlogs, and pent-up demand as factors supporting their outlook. These are not companies ignoring the environment. They are companies making deliberate choices within it.

Mid-market businesses have a structural advantage in moments like this: they can move faster than large enterprises, adapt more quickly, and make decisions without layers of bureaucracy. That agility is worth something, but only if you use it.

In our next post, we’ll get specific: where to focus, what to protect, and how to make your commercial motion more productive.

 

Frequently Asked Questions

What CEOs Are Asking About Growth in Uncertain Markets

Is now a bad time to invest in growth?

Not necessarily. In fact, it may be a great time to invest in growth, as long as that investment is focused. While uncertainty remains elevated, opportunity still exists. Many CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the rest of the year, and many companies continue to invest in sales, marketing, technology, and operational improvements.

The better question is not whether to invest. It is where to invest, how to prioritize resources, and which opportunities are most likely to create measurable growth.

How are mid-market companies responding to economic uncertainty in 2026?

Many mid-market companies are focusing on productivity, customer retention, AI adoption, and targeted growth initiatives within growth sectors.

Are CEOs still confident about growing their businesses in 2026?

Many are. Surveys show CEOs are more confident in their own businesses than in the overall economy, and Chief Outsiders is seeing leaders with opportunities even amid uncertainty.

Which industries are growing despite economic uncertainty?

While economic uncertainty has caused some companies to delay major decisions, growth is not occurring uniformly across all sectors. Multiple industries continue to demonstrate resilience and, in some cases, acceleration.

According to economic forecasts and industry outlook data, sectors showing continued strength include industrial manufacturing, medical equipment and healthcare technologies, electrical equipment and electrification, infrastructure and construction-related markets, and selected technology segments tied to productivity improvement and artificial intelligence. Business investment in automation, operational efficiency, domestic manufacturing, and supply chain resilience also remains active.

Many middle-market companies operating in these sectors are continuing to invest in commercial growth initiatives, market expansion, and productivity improvements rather than waiting for broader economic uncertainty to resolve. In fact, business confidence surveys show that CEOs are often significantly more optimistic about their own company’s prospects than about the overall economy.

The key takeaway is that economic uncertainty does not impact every industry equally. Companies should evaluate the specific market dynamics, customer demand, and competitive opportunities within their own sectors rather than relying solely on broad macroeconomic headlines when making growth decisions.

What should CEOs do during uncertain economic conditions?

The evidence suggests that CEOs should resist the temptation to pause all major decisions and instead focus on making disciplined, strategic investments that strengthen their competitive position. Research from McKinsey, the World Economic Forum, and multiple CEO confidence surveys consistently shows that companies that outperform during periods of uncertainty balance resilience with selective growth investments rather than adopting a purely defensive posture.

For most middle-market companies, that means focusing on four priorities:

1. Stay close to customers and market opportunities.

   Periods of uncertainty often create shifts in customer needs, buying behavior, and competitive positioning. Companies that maintain strong customer relationships and continuously evaluate market opportunities are better positioned to identify emerging sources of growth and adapt more quickly than competitors.

2. Invest in productivity and operational efficiency.

   Many organizations are accelerating investments in automation, artificial intelligence, sales productivity, and operational improvements to strengthen margins and create long-term competitive advantages. Productivity gains can help companies offset cost pressures while improving growth capacity.

3. Preserve strategic flexibility.

   Rather than committing to a single forecast or waiting for complete certainty, leading companies develop multiple scenarios, maintain financial discipline, and create the organizational agility needed to adjust quickly as conditions evolve.

4. Continue investing selectively in growth.

   Research on growth outperformers shows that companies that continue to invest in strategic initiatives, innovation, talent, and market expansion during uncertain periods often emerge stronger than competitors who postpone action until conditions stabilize.

The key lesson for CEOs is that uncertainty itself is not a strategy. The companies that outperform during volatile periods are typically those that remain customer-focused, improve productivity, preserve flexibility, and make deliberate investments in their future growth while competitors wait for certainty that rarely arrives.

 

Chief Outsiders is a proud partner with ITR Economics. Learn more here.